NASA Monitors ‘City Killer’ Asteroid YR4 as 2032 Approach Raises Concerns

June 28, 2024 — NASA has issued a renewed alert regarding Asteroid YR4, a near-Earth object currently traveling approximately 500,000 miles from our planet. Scientists project the asteroid could make a close approach—or even strike Earth—in 2032, with major cities like Mumbai, Kolkata, and Dhaka potentially in its crosshairs. While initial impact probabilities were low, updated calculations now suggest a 3.1% chance of collision, prompting urgent discussions about planetary defense strategies.

The Threat Profile: A “City Killer” Asteroid
Asteroid YR4, estimated to measure between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, falls into the “city killer” category, capable of devastating urban centers upon impact. To put its size into perspective, the asteroid could span the length of a football field. Though not large enough to cause global extinction, experts warn it could unleash catastrophic damage equivalent to multiple nuclear explosions if it strikes a densely populated area.

NASA planetary defense lead, Dr. Kelly Fast, emphasized, “While the odds remain low, even a 3% risk demands serious attention. We cannot afford complacency.”

Risk Assessment and Preparedness
The asteroid’s trajectory is under constant scrutiny, with impact probabilities fluctuating as new data emerges. Initial estimates placed the risk below 1%, but recent observations adjusted the likelihood to between 1.5% and 3.1%. These shifts highlight the challenges of tracking celestial objects influenced by gravitational forces and solar radiation.

Key Details:

Closest Approach: 2032 (exact date pending further analysis).

At-Risk Regions: Coastal and densely populated zones, including parts of South Asia.

Current Distance: Roughly twice the Earth-Moon distance.

NASA, alongside international partners like the European Space Agency (ESA), is accelerating efforts to develop deflection technologies. Proposals include kinetic impactors (crashing spacecraft into the asteroid) or gravity tractors (using a spacecraft’s gravitational pull to alter its path).

Global Response: U.S., China, and India Urged to Collaborate
The U.S. and China are already advancing independent planetary defense initiatives, including experimental missile systems and surveillance satellites. However, NASA has called for broader collaboration, particularly with India, given the vulnerability of its megacities.

“This is a global threat requiring a unified response,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. “No nation can tackle this alone.”

Indian space authorities, including ISRO, have yet to confirm participation in joint deflection efforts but are reportedly assessing the asteroid’s trajectory.

Why the Probability Keeps Changing
Asteroid tracking relies on complex mathematical models that account for gravitational nudges from planets, solar radiation, and even the asteroid’s rotation. As YR4 moves closer, telescopes and radar systems will refine its path.

“Uncertainty is inherent in these calculations,” explained Dr. Davide Farnocchia of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “Each observation sharpens our predictions. By 2028, we’ll have a much clearer picture.”

Looking Ahead: Vigilance Over Panic
While the term “city killer” sparks alarm, experts stress that panic is unwarranted. NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office emphasizes preparedness over fear, with ongoing simulations and international drills to test response protocols.

What’s Next?

Enhanced monitoring via the upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile.

A planned 2026 NASA mission to test asteroid deflection techniques on a non-threatening space rock.

Regular public updates as YR4’s path becomes clearer.
For now, Asteroid YR4 serves as a reminder of humanity’s vulnerability—and resilience—in the face of cosmic threats. As Dr. Fast noted, “The goal isn’t fear; it’s readiness. We’re writing the playbook to protect our planet, one asteroid at a time.